Crime is going down and yet most think it is going up.
- davidjamesgrosse
- Jan 8
- 2 min read
I am enjoying the excellent Tim Harford* and his latest episodes of “More or Less” (see links below), with a focus this week on The Stats of the Nation.
On Wednesday he covered Sex, Drugs, (Crime) and Empty Homes.
This covered the rather startling revelation that according to Police data (for England and Wales) crime overall has increased 25% over a 10 year period, with violent offences up 85%.
But we should celebrate.
As, hidden within these concerning metrics is good news; being a significant improvement in the completeness of Police record keeping.
So much so, that this capture of (previously) missing data more than accounts for the purported rise in crime.
Using ONS data and sources that most independent experts believe tracks the true (underlying) trend leads to a 40% reduction in crime over the same period, and a 50% reduction in violent crime.
As ever, understanding methodology, data sources and consistency over time is key.
For a read across into Corporate life, I wonder how many organizations are brave enough to focus on improving the quality and completeness of their data set, even where that seems to push headline indicators in the wrong direction.
And the maturity of risk managers, executives, boards and regulators to embrace the challenge.
As with accident, safety and incident data, sometimes a lower number is not to be applauded, but is a red flag that information is suppressed or missing.
And a higher number is to be praised, where it indicates completeness and transparency.
(*and also kudos to Nathan Gower for the underlying reporting).
References
For More or Less on BBC Radio 4 see:
For ONS crime data see:
For some Policing Insight (& on why people think crime is going up, when it is going down) see:
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